SOURCE: “Express Employment Professionals”, EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEWSLETTER, “News That Impacts Your Business” / www.expresspros.com
The Results Are In: Business Leaders Predict Moderate Growth for 2016
By Refresh Leadership on January 15, 2016 in Surveys, Polls, and Infographics
Just 13% Expect Decrease in Business Activity; Outlook More Optimistic Than a Year Ago
In a recent Refresh Leadership poll, we asked our readers “What are your business performance predictions for 2016?” Of those surveyed, 50% say, “We will see moderate growth.” Another 16% predict “exponential growth,” while 18% expect to “remain steady, but unchanged.” Just 13% say they “will likely experience a decrease in business activity.
This shows business leaders are overall more optimistic at the end of 2015 than they were at the conclusion of 2014. Fewer are predicting a decrease in business activity, while more are predicting growth. Nevertheless, the picture is not quite as positive as at the end of 2013, when only seven percent of respondents expected a decrease in business activity for the year ahead. Full results are below.
“Many companies faced their share of challenges in 2015, but by and large business leaders have high expectations for 2016,” said Bob Funk, CEO of Express, and a former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. “A full two-thirds expect growth. That confidence is itself a positive sign for the economy, and if these predictions come true, 2016 may indeed be a happy new year.
Temporary Jobs Increase in December
Staffing Industry Analysts – Jan. 8, 2016
After decreasing in November, temporary services jobs finished 2015 strong by adding 34,400 temporary jobs in December. The temporary penetration rate reached an all-time high of 2.06%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The temporary penetration rate is calculated by dividing the total number of temporary services jobs by the amount of Americans currently employed. Compared to December 2014, temporary jobs were up by 3.3% in December 2015, year over year, up from 2.85% in November 2015. Job growth in temporary services is usually a positive indicator of the current state of employment.
US Retail Sales Post End-of-Year Growth
The Wall Street Journal – Jan. 7, 2016
After modest growth throughout the year, U.S. retail sales rose in December thanks to strong holiday spending. According to First Data Corp., an organization that processes credit-card transactions, retail sales grew by 3.3% from Oct. 31 through Jan. 4. Despite a strong showing by consumers, a RetailMetrix report shows physical store sales fell 6.4% in the final two months of 2015, showing a shift in how Americans do their holiday shopping. Another report by research firm HIS Global Insight showed that Americans, on average, saved about $722 per household on gasoline in 2015, but instead of spending it at retailers, they are opting to eat out, purchase cars, and make home improvements. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the U.S. economy and is a good indicator of the overall economic health of the nation.
US Employment Trends Index Rebounds in December
The Conference Board – Jan. 11, 2016
After decreasing in November, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased from 128.27 in November to 129.33 in December. Year over year, the index has grown 2.6%. The rebounding index can be attributed to a positive reading from seven of the eight index components, including (in order from the most negative contributor to the least) “Number of Temporary Employees,” “Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find ‘Jobs Hard to Get,'” “Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales,” “Industrial Production,” “Job Openings,” “Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now,” and “Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.” According to the Conference Board, these indicators comprise an index that “filters out ‘noise’ to show underlying trends more clearly.” “The Employment Trends Index rebounded sharply in December, nearly erasing November’s entire decline,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “However, the slowdown in the ETI growth rate in recent months, combined with weak GDP growth in the fourth quarter, suggests that the pace of job growth is likely to slow in the coming months.”
Due to Global Concerns, US Economy to Grow Modestly
Reuters – Jan. 14, 2015
Though the U.S. economy showed strong signs in 2015, the shaky global economic climate has caused economists to have modest expectations for 2016. A recent Reuters poll of 90 economists showed that the U.S. economy will grow 2.5% in 2016, same as 2015 and less than the 2.8% expected last year. The 2.5% growth expected is a modest pace, but may not be enough to produce a strong rebound in inflation. However, economists only gave the U.S. a 15% chance of falling into a recession in 2016, as the majority see the current business cycle to end in the next two to three years. This report comes after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December 2015, citing that inflation will rebound with the rate hike. According to the Federal Open Market Committee, inflation is likely to rise 1.6% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, missing the 2% mark expected by the Fed.
Employment Situation Summary
The U.S. economy added 292,000 jobs in December, as the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5%. The Professional and Business Services industry saw the largest growth in employment in December, adding 73,000 positions. Learn more from the recent employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Major Industry Employment:
- Construction: + 45,000 • Education & Health: + 59,000
- Manufacturing: + 8,000 • Information: + 16,000
- Retail Trade: + 4,300 • Transportation: + 23,100
- Professional & Business: + 73,000 • Government: + 17,000
