Employment Trends Index Increased in July
The Conference Board – Aug. 5, 2019
After decreasing in June, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased to 110.98 in July, up from a downwardly revised 109.302 in June. Year-over-year, the index has grown 1.3%.
The increase can be attributed to positive readings from seven of the eight index components, including (in order from the largest contributor to the smallest): “Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find ‘Jobs Hard to Get,’” “Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers,” “Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,” “Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now,” “Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales,” “Industrial Production,” and “Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.”
According to the Conference Board, the index “filters out noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
“The Employment Trends Index increased in July but continues to hover around a flat trend since the summer of 2018,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board’s Labor Market Institute. “In the second half of 2018, the Employment Trends Index started signaling a slowdown in job growth. So far this year, job growth has indeed slowed down compared to 2018, which is not surprising given the modest economic slowdown and the recruiting difficulties associated with a tight labor market. In the coming months, we expect job growth to remain solid, which will be enough to further tighten the labor market. Growing labor force participation rates will somewhat ease these hiring pressures.”
Consumer Confidence Rebounds From 2-Year Low
The Conference Board – July 30, 2019
After falling to a two-year low in June, U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in July. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 135.7, up from 124.3 in June. The Present Situation Index, which shows current views on business and labor conditions, increased from 164.3 in June to 170.9 in July. The short-term outlook of consumers also increased as the Expectations Index rose from 97.6 in June to 112.2 in July.
The report also found that 46.2% of respondents felt jobs were currently plentiful, up from 44% in June, while the amount of those who said jobs were hard to get decreased from 15.8% in June to 12.8% in July.
“After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, consumer confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions.”
US Retail Sales Surge in July
Bloomberg – Aug. 15, 2019
After increasing a downwardly revised 0.3% in June, U.S. retail sales surged 0.7% in July, the largest gain in four months. The July numbers represent a gain in retail sales for the fifth straight month, after little gain during the previous months. Bloomberg economists predicted a more modest 0.3% gain. Excluding food services, car dealers, building materials, and gasoline stations, sales rose 1% in July following a 0.7% gain in June. Despite threats of trade wars and levies on consumer goods, Americans are still spending, a sign that jobs are plentiful and wages are increasing.
“The numbers are extremely strong and they come on the back of several good months in a row,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. “The main driver is the labor market, kicking off very good income gains.”
Source: Express Employment Professionals, Employment Trends
