2016 Elections and Hispanic Voters…It is all about the Math!
By David Triana
This column is my personal observation and opinions on this issue. At the end of it, I am including actual figures and analysis from a bi-partisan poll of Hispanic voters conducted last year. My hope is that it enlightens many about this issue and especially that individuals on both sides begin seeing the issue of immigration not just as a “number”, but also from the perspective of the human factor that is involved. Because within those “millions of illegals figures”, are human beings from most of the nations of the world, from all races and creeds and many of those undocumented individuals indeed have US Citizen children, teens, and young adults that also will be affected, either positively or negatively, depending on who ends up running our nation after November 2016.
The economy, jobs, and national security surely are the top three issues in the minds of the majority of the American electorate, but for those out there that do not think immigration is an important issue in our nation, surely the words and actions of the current candidates on both sides say otherwise.
It seems that every time the immigration issue is brought up, whether on a debate stage or while a candidate is being interviewed, there are only two sides to it, those that are “acting” like they will try and solve it once and for all and those that are so hard core about this issue that only the idiotic “solution” of “Deport them All” appears to be their answer.
I do believe there are some people “in the middle” of these two sides that truly do want to find a solution to an issue that has been festering since 1986, the last time an immigration solution was agreed upon and put into Law. Of all people, the standard bearer of the Conservative Movement at that time, and a man I admired, signed this bill into law. It was President Ronald Wilson Reagan.
Today, Conservative candidates and voters bring Reagan up all the time and love to say “how much like him they are”, at the same time, they are the most ardent challengers to finding a common sense solution on this issue. A solution, that like Ronald Reagan and the Congress at that time concluded, had to take the human aspect behind the “numbers of undocumented.”
The bottom line is that solving this is NOT “Rocket Science” and it also involves “economics, jobs, and national security.” The immigration issue overall includes all these three things within it and many different individuals, organizations, and think tanks, both Liberal and Conservative ones, have 4 – 5 point plans that would solve it.
Donald Trump is the consummate showman (a clown may be a better description), unfortunately, he is an effective showman and knows exactly which buttons to push. He is leading in the Republican Party according to polls. Thankfully, it is still a minority percentage of the overall Republican voting block. Last year, as he launched his campaign, he disparaged immigrants hailing from Mexico. A not so smart showman I guess, for he must not know that 64% of the Hispanic immigrants hail from Mexico.
So what is wrong with his “we’ll deport them all” way of solving this issue? Can you just see it? Immigration officers or whatever force is needed rounding up the estimated 12 million undocumented individuals, of all races, nationalities, and creeds? How will that be done? Do we have enough buses, trains, and airplanes to do such a thing? Will we use the merchant marine fleet, cruise liners, and other ships to transport some to Europe, Asia, Africa, and all the other continents that “the illegal invaders” (another disparaging term many of his followers like to use) hail from?
Such a ridiculous “solution” is not only impossible, it is not what a proud nation of immigrants like the United States of America will likely conduct.
I am sure him and his followers know that among the estimated 12 million people that are here illegally, there are thousands of US Citizen children, teens and adults. Many of these children, have never been to the country their parents hail from. For a group of people that claim to be all about the “rule of law” (they use this term to justify their hard core approach to this issue), are they ok with deporting these children too or that such families will be forever broken up?
Should we not be able to come up with a better solution than that? One that considers that human aspect behind the numbers?
In June of last year, a bi-partisan poll of Hispanics voters was conducted for Univision Noticias by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Tarrance Group:
Some key results include:
79 % of respondents consider Trump’s comments offensive. Only 18 % don’t consider them that way. As a result, 71 % have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, only 17 % have a favorable opinion, and 12 % have no opinion of him. If the Republican primaries and caucuses were held then, Trump would receive just 7 % of Hispanic Republicans’ votes, Jeb Bush 38 %, Marco Rubio 22 %, and Ted Cruz 12 %. If presidential elections were held then, Hillary Clinton would easily beat Trump among Hispanic voters. She would get 70 % of their votes and Trump 16 %.
A solid majority of Hispanic voters approve the decision made by Univision, NBC, Macy’s, and other entities to break business ties with Trump over his comments about Mexican immigrants. 74 % of respondents agree with that decision and only 19 % disagree.
Here are a few other interesting figures from that poll, bear in mind, it was taken in June of last year, but, and this is solely my personal opinion, the percentages are probably not that much different:
If the election had taken place at that time: Hillary Clinton would obtain 64% of the Hispanic votes and her closest Republican rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, would receive 27%
16% of the voters interviewed identify themselves as being Republicans while 58% say they are Democrats.
Only 36% have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party while 52% are favorable toward the Democratic Party.
The survey allows one to infer that many Hispanic voters are receptive to ideas from the aspiring Republicans. For example, 32% proclaim themselves to be conservative; while 35% consider themselves to be moderates and barely 28% see themselves as liberals. Furthermore, one out of every four interviewees is an independent. This suggests that Republicans as well as Democrats are still faced with the important task of persuading the Hispanic electorate during the current presidential campaign.
When the time comes to seek out Hispanic voters, aspiring presidential candidates will be faced with a complex electorate that will have diverse important matters in mind at the moment they vote. Univision’s exclusive survey revealed that an overwhelming majority of voters consider the more important campaign topics to be the job creation and the state of the nation’s economy, education, healthcare, and immigration, in that order. Of respondents, 54 percent are inclined to vote for a presidential candidate who favors a path toward citizenship or legal status for undocumented immigrants, while barely 15% would vote for a candidate who is opposed to legalizing the undocumented.
68% of the Hispanic voters interviewed say that the fact that the candidate might speak Spanish fluently will not influence their vote, while barely 26% say that it would. Nevertheless, the use of Spanish will be useful for attracting the vote of Hispanics who have a greater command of Spanish than of English. Four out of every 10 prefer candidates who are able to speak to them in Spanish.
Yes indeed, it is all about the math! I close this article with some advice:
To the Republican Party: The poll found that a “clear majority of Hispanic voters recognize the difference between Trump and the Republican Party in this controversy. 61 % say that Trump’s derogatory comments represent only his own views whereas 14 % say they also represent the views of the Republican Party.” Choose wisely!
To Democrats, Republicans and Independents: Let’s force our leaders to find a common sense solution to this issue! Fight back against the likes of Donald Trump and those that agree with him, because there are human beings behind those “numbers” and we must take that into consideration and indeed, solve this immigration mess we find ourselves in. But do it with solutions that will make us proud, and that keep this nation as the best, most caring and generous one that ever existed!
To Donald Trump and his followers: It is all about the Math amigos! There is a slight chance you may end up winning the Republican Party nomination, but, your chances with 7% or less of the Hispanic vote in a national election are slim to NADA!
To Hispanics in general: Let your voice be heard this year and especially in November!
Source: POLL CONDUCTED BY: BENDIXEN & AMANDI INTERNATIONAL AND THE TARRANCE GROUP FOR: UNIVISION NOTICIAS
